|Dew Point:||58.6°F (14.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:|
Mostly CloudyLow: 54
Slight Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 62 Low: 49
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 60 Low: 51
Rain ShowersHigh: 57 Low: 40
Chance Rain ShowersHigh: 48 Low: 32
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. South southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 62. South southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of rain showers before 7pm, then a chance of rain showers and patchy fog. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A chance of rain showers before 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. South southwest wind 8 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Rain showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Rain showers before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 6pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
... Warm and moist conditions will continue through the weekend until a cold front moves into the region on Sunday. Showers will persist Sunday into Monday before dry high pressure builds in on Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM: A rather stagnant pattern continues to prevail across the eastern half of the CONUS as strong subtropical ridging dominates over the western Atlantic, with troffing out west. At the surface, the primary feature continues to be a quasi-stationary frontal axis draped along the OH and mid MS valleys, which continues to promote modest QPF for those areas. Closer to home, sly flow around the parent surface high consequent of the upper anticyclone mentioned above is promoting sustained warm/moist advection across the southeast states. Decoupling this evening should allow for low stratus development tonight, somewhat like what happened the past few nights. Updated sky cover reflects clearer conditions this evening, with the stratus not becoming widespread until the predawn hours. Calmer winds tonight should permit more fog development than last night, though vsbys may not drop as low due to dewpoints having mixed out somewhat this afternoon.
The low stratus will lift into the mid/late morning hours with partly cloudy skies prevailing by period's end. As for pops, did continue with a low end slight chance pops along the southern escarpment accounting for any sly/swly upsloping. It still looks appropriate to advertise a slight chance along/north of I-40 beginning in the morning where the NAM family of models continues to hint at an approaching back door front. However, with no support from GFS/EC and with minimal model QPF, the idea of the wedge making inroads this far south seems questionable. Expecting another round of record high min temps Friday morning, and record highs into the afternoon.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Thursday: The persistent upper ridge will remain in place over the western Atlantic with corresponding surface high allowing low-level WAA to continue across the Southeast. As we start the period on Friday night, a sharp shortwave pushing across the Rockies will begin to lift into the Plains, while a warm front remains in place from TX to the OH Valley. This will result in a continued focus of prolonged excessive rain across that area. Impacts to our area will be pretty minimal, but continue upslope flow toward the mountains will allow for intermittent showery conditions to continue, with an uptick starting Saturday afternoon. With the warm and humid conditions, there may be enough surface instability to get a few thunderstorms especially across southern zones, but nothing too significant. The bigger story will be the continued ridiculously warm temperatures, with lows remaining closer to seasonal highs, and highs 15-20 degrees above normal, both around record territory. This will continue on Sunday, but could see highs Sunday just a couple of degrees cooler with increased cloud cover (see below).
During the day Saturday, another shortwave will dive down the NW flow behind the Plains wave into the Rockies, acting to finally kick the systems east. The upper ridge will be forced SW and will continue to slowly retrograde as we push into the extended. However, for Sunday, the cold front will stretch across our area and elongate as it stalls, while that secondary shortwave pulls another slug of moisture out of the Gulf and toward the Southern Appalachians, keeping pops in the area through at least Monday morning, though the ECMWF is a little slower with the final kick and doesn't move pops out until Monday evening. Where the front ends up across the area Sunday into Monday will of course significantly impact temperatures and confidence is low, but for now given the pattern figured it's better to err on the warm side so generally trended toward the slower ECMWF. Even so, Monday highs will be much more reasonable (still above normal), with improvement expected into the extended as the front finally scours the airmass out.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Thursday: Behind the front Monday night into Tuesday, conditions look much more seasonable (still slightly above normal temperatures) and overall pleasant with dry high pressure dominating the area into Tuesday night. The upper ridge will be over the western Caribbean by this point, but a deepening trough across the Desert SW (cutoff low on the ECMWF but sharp/deep trough on GFS) will start raising some ruckus for the end of the period. Another round of moisture will lift toward the area during the day on Wednesday as, once again, low-level WAA increases around the western periphery of the surface high that will be centered just off the NC/VA coast. Differences in the operational models become more unsurprisingly more significant toward the end of the period, but generally still looks like moisture will be lingering with temperatures remaining above normal.