Sugar Mountain

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A progressive jet stream will support unsettled weather through this evening with active weather returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. Much cooler and breezy conditions are expected behind a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday with a gradual warming of temperatures heading into next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 820 PM EDT: Main update for the 00Z TAF issuance along with minor adjustments made to temperatures/PoPs/Wx/Sky to coincide with latest trends, as the rest of the near term forecast remains on track. Lingering showers continue to stream in behind the recently passed front, which per latest obs, is situated just outside the FA to the east and south. With latest mesoanalysis depicting the better instability along and east of the front, do expect any lingering activity through tonight to remain showers.

Previous discussion: PoPs will continue to diminish rapidly from west to east through the late evening hours as the boundary and associated deeper moisture move off into the central piedmont of the Carolinas. The main concern for the overnight will be mid/upper drying over lingering moisture on the ground and in the boundary layer. This could lead to areas of fog and low stratus, and the fog could become dense in some locations if the winds remain light enough.

The morning fog will burn off fairly quickly Monday morning to provide good insolation for the bulk of the day. Thus, maximum temperatures should rebound to 5 to 10 degrees above climo once again, with dry conditions throughout the day.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 2:45 PM Sunday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Tuesday with flat upper ridging over the region. By late Tuesday into early Wednesday, another upper trof will dig down across the Northern Plains and move towards the Ohio River Valley. The trof will amplify as it approaches our area, with the trof axis expected to pass just to our north by the end of the period late Wednesday.

At the sfc, dry high pressure will briefly spread over the region late Monday into early Tuesday. The drying will be short-lived as the next round of deep, pre-frontal moisture spreads over the fcst area from the southwest on Tuesday. The models have been trending a bit slower wrt the spread of the deep moisture into the CWFA, and PoPs have been lowered a bit in the 12 to 18z range over the SW zones. The actual cold front won't reach the CWFA until early Wed, however the bulk of the QPF is still expected to fall late Tues into early Wed. Anticipated storm total QPF is still in the 1 to 2 inch range for most of the non-mtn zones with less expected over the higher terrain. Flood concerns remain minimal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2:35 PM Sunday: the extended forecast picks up at 00z on Thursday with a broad upper trof axis passing just to our north. The trof is expected to rapidly lift NE and away from the fcst area on Thursday with a weaker, secondary trof axis trailing the main axis late Thursday into Friday. This feature should move off the Atlantic Coast by Friday afternoon with heights recovering in its wake. Upper ridging will then spread back over the region for the remainder of the period. At the sfc, cool and dry high pressure will be spreading back over the region by early Thursday as a cold front moves offshore. The high will linger over the region into next weekend. By the later part of the weekend, the high will move off the Atlantic Coast allowing more moist SLY flow to gradually spread back over the CWFA. The period should remain dry with the main concern being low temps cold enough to possibly produce frost over the higher terrain early Thurs and Fri. In addition, the higher terrain will also see wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range Thurs morning with speeds diminishing later in the day.