|Dew Point:||40.6°F (4.8°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.27" (1024.9 mb)|
Hi 51 °F
Hi 57 °F
Hi 58 °F
Hi 52 °F
Hi 38 °F
Showers likely, mainly before 1pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 51. South wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 1am. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind 6 to 9 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
A slight chance of showers between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. South wind 3 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South southeast wind 7 to 10 mph.
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11am, then a chance of showers between 11am and 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 52. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Partly cloudy, with a low around 22. Blustery.
Sunny, with a high near 38.
Wed Feb 22 2017
SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary passes east of our area today. This will be followed by brief drying on Thursday before a more significant cold front brings additional chances for rain and thunderstorms late Friday or Saturday. Overall, daytime temperatures will remain well above normal through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630 AM EST Update...weak upglide precip shield persists across the wrn half of the FA this morning. Expect a gradual decrease in coverage thru the remainder of the morning...with lingering isol pockets of -ra/dz into the early afternoon. Temps and td/s remaining rather steady state...with slow rises in hr/ly temps thru mid morning.
A low-level wedge or insitu-wedge has become entrenched across the FA this morning making for steady state conds wrt to temps/tds and to some degree, winds. Atlantic moisture flux continues in the h92- h85 layer and with negligible forcing aloft...very light -shra continues to band over the area. The short range models generally agree the escarpment area will be the best focusing zone for precip chances thru the morning and the afternoon. This makes sense and have adj official pops with a blend of CONSShort guidance. Max temps shud range from arnd 60 mtn valleys to near 70 across the far srn zones where the wedge bndry could see see more breaks in the clouds...and perhaps a couple general tstms. Min temps tonight have been adj up a little with continued llvl moisture flux and no good mechanism to degrade or force the sfc wedge east. There will be better ridging aloft pushing in from the SW however and this will help reduce the pop potential...basically leaving slight to low end chances along the escarpment area thru daybreak.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM EST Wednesday: Surface high pressure will stretch from the western Atlantic to the southern Appalachians on Thursday, with any deeper moisture confined to the far southeast coastline near the Florida system, or to the north along the warm front stretched out across the Virginias. In between, a shortwave ridge will develop over the forecast area Thursday through Friday as an upstream low pressure system moves into the central plains. Deeper layer moisture thus looks relatively sparse across the region in this late week period. However, fairly abundant surface to 850 mb moisture will continue along with light southerly flow to provide some measure of upslope triggering. Instability looks fairly limited, but steady dewpoint recovery could allow isolated to scattered diurnal showers and embedded garden-variety thunderstorms to form. Expect max temps 15 degrees above climo on Thursday afternoon, and even warmer on Friday ahead of the approaching cold front.
Moisture pooling along the cold front approaching from the west should reach the southern Appalachians Friday night but then gradually dry up as the boundary moves east through the piedmont by midday Saturday. The southerly low-level jet ahead of this system should be capped at about 35 to 40 kt as the pre-frontal convection crosses the region early Saturday. The veered nature of the winds will further deep layer shear. The best strong thunderstorm chances for our area will be east of I-77 around 18Z, but better SBCAPE values will remain off to the east across the NC central and eastern piedmont through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will tumble from the west through the afternoon.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EST Wednesday: Starting Saturday evening. The cold front moves off the East Coast Saturday evening as some shallow upslope moisture banks up against the Tennessee border with much cooler air moving in with NW to NNW Flow. Only the GFS shows any significant moisture with the NW Flow. The Canadian only has a hint of any low level moisture while the EC has nothing but dry air with the flow from the Great Lakes Region. Will not expect much to occur and drying out before sunrise Sunday. Cooler surface high pressure will be centered over Alabama to Tennessee around 18Z Sunday.
High pressure moves off the Carolina coast late Sunday night and Monday with return flow southerly moisture starting across the SE States. Warm front located over the Gulf States early Monday reaches the Ohio Valley late Monday night. The cold front advances across the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday bringing showers and perhaps storms to our area late Wed night which is after the end of the current forecast. As the warm front moves north, a slug of moisture crosses the southern Appalachians late Monday night into early Tuesday. That will be the best chance of any rainfall until the prefrontal rain ahead of the cold front reaches our area on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be near normal Sunday rising to around 5 degrees above on Monday rising to 10 to 12 degrees above normal Tuesday.