|Dew Point:||25.4°F (-3.7°C)|
|Sea Level Pressure:||30.54" (1034.1 mb)|
Hi 52 °F
Hi 54 °F
Hi 53 °F
Hi 59 °F
Hi 55 °F
Showers likely, mainly after 5pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. South southeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. Low around 47. South southeast wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then showers likely. High near 54. West southwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Windy, with a west wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 14 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mostly clear, with a low around 39.
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
A 30 percent chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Showers likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
of the Upstate. Have increased pops this morning in areas already experiencing convection. Adjusted hourly temperatures with a resulting minor tweak to afternoon highs, but not any significant change.
Otherwise, a strong closed low pressure center continues to move east into Missouri. Downstream ridging has developed ahead of this system over the eastern U.S., and surface high pressure stretches southward from Quebec through the Carolinas. The surface ridge will gradually migrate offshore today as low pressure approaches from the west and southerly return flow moisture rides northward over the surface ridge to set up hybrid cold air damming. Upglide and upslope forcing will be much better over western NC and points north today, which leaves the southern tier as the more questionable forecast for temperatures and associated weather. The northern tier east of the Blue Ridge should get locked into cold air damming fairly quickly, with light rain breaking out this morning and expanding this afternoon. The southern tier could well see drier conditions initially and more warming, which will in turn pump up instability for the afternoon hours. SBCAPE values should reach 1000-1500 J/kg in piedmont sections southeast of I-85 this afternoon. A few 55 dBZ storm cores reaching reaching 23 kft this afternoon could well produce marginally large hail and brief damaging wind gusts in a few places once the cap breaks. This is the early activity that supports the latest Slight Risk area, at least for the southern tier.
As the upper low pressure system lifts east over the Ohio Valley tonight, the associated trough will acquire a more negative tilt and bring a relatively decent period of upper forcing to our region overnight. Meanwhile, the numerical models have the surface wedge front retreating northward across western NC overnight. Although this will uncover a bit more overnight instability, it will also help to minimize the potential for a focusing mechanism of low level helicity. Of course, the models are notorious for eroding the wedge layer too quickly at night, but the offshore high position is not favorable for entrenched CAD, so the model solutions seem reasonable. Some uncertainty remains, however, regarding the risk of nocturnal severe thunderstorms overnight as the 40 kt low level jet translates through - especially if the better overnight instability in the NAM is correct. This later activity will thus also support the Day 1 Marginal to Slight risk severe tstm threat. The nighttime rainfall maximum should occur in the southern upslope areas from the GA mountains to parts of the Blue Ridge and the current belief is that this area can handle any localized two inch totals with the main precipitation band without flooding consequences. The better convection should translate through fairly quickly 06Z to 12Z, likely crossing the I-77 corridor around daybreak.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2pm EDT Thursday: Some showers may linger in the mountains with wrap-around moisture as large upper system exists the region. Upper flow pattern will be strongly northwesterly on the back side of the system. 850mb northwesterly flow of 30 to 40kts Friday night will make for windy and gusty conditions, especially over higher terrain. Rain and wind decline Saturday morning as surface low continues its eastward progress. Northwesterly dry advection will lead to clearing skies on Saturday which will last until Sunday evening when clouds begin to move-in ahead of the next system. Flow pattern transitions from northwesterly to upper ridge on Saturday and the weekend looks to be mostly calm and clear with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal; with next system due in on Monday.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 2pm EDT Thursday: EC and GFS models are in quite good agreement through Tuesday evening, with the GFS model getting ahead of the EC with the approach of the system due in around day7. Extended forecast basically has 2 frontal/spring-time weather systems rolling through the area. The first one passing through Monday night and the second one by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.
Current GFS guidance on CAPE is uninspiring for both systems. As the Monday system impacts the area during the CAPE-unfavorable nighttime period, MLCAPE fails to exceed 400 j/kg, despite a surge of moisture from the southeast ahead of the system. Bulk shear, though, will be quite good at 50 to 60 kts; which will give some potential for severe, especially in Piedmont areas where deeper moisture would be expected on southeasterly low-level dewpoint advection. System is dynamically potent with well-defined surface low and cold front/warm front triple point moving along the eastern edge of the Blueridge Monday night. Moisture is not completely scoured following the exit of the first system on Tuesday, but moisture advection does not really commence in advance of the next system, as surface low is much further north, giving westerly low-level advection. Second system does bring with it some Gulf moisture, but MLCAPE is not expected to exceed 800 j/kg, even with peak diurnal warmth. Dynamical factors are again healthy with the Wed.-Thu. system with the latest GFS showing 50 to 60 kts of deep layer shear, so the severe potential should not be ruled-out at this point.
Temperatures will be running at normal to 10 degrees above normal throughout the extended with no frost or freeze anticipated. Following exit of the second system Thurs.-Fri, cold advection may be sufficient to produce some frost in higher elevations Friday Morning, though that is pretty speculative this far in advance. Winds will be expected to be elevated as well with the passage of the two frontal systems on Monday and Wed/Thu.