Sugar Mountain

Forecast Discussion

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... Cool surface high pressure will continue to build into the area and linger well into the weekend. This will allow temperatures to gradually warm again through the weekend and into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 521 PM EDT Thursday: Forecast was in relatively good shape. Just a few tweaks to temperatures, mainly to raise a bit in places where it cleared out this afternoon, and lower a bit where the cloudiness persists.

Otherwise...quiet weather will continue through the near term Friday as surface high pressure persists atop the region. Subtle changes in the weather are anticipated as the wedge in place gradually dissipates and a 590 dm ridge axis approaches from the west. This will support gradual clearing and warming trends overall. Skies may clear out enough tonight for patchy fog focused across mountain some mountain valleys. Friday temperatures will start out in the 50s to near 60 and warm nicely under nearly full sun with highs expected to peak in the 70s to near 80.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2:55 PM EDT Thursday: the short-term fcst picks up at 00z on Saturday with steep upper ridging still in place over the region as the upper low associated with TC Humberto moves farther off the Atlantic Coast. Upper ridging will remain in place thru the short term period, but will begin to flatten late in the period as a broad upper trof moves across the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes. At the surface, dry high pressure will be centered over the Carolina Coast and gradually drift eastward thru the period. This pattern will keep things dry over our area thru the period with temperatures steadily warming each day.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 2:45 PM EDT Thursday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on Monday with heights steadily falling as broad upper trofing digs down across the Great Lakes. The trof axis is expected to lift NE on Tuesday with heights briefly recovering for the middle of the week. Towards the end of next week, the long-range guidance suggests that another upper trof will approach the region from the west. At the surface, what's left of broad-scale high pressure will be drifting offshore as a cold front approaches the CWFA from the NW. The long-range models have sped up the progression of this front and come into better agreement wrt the timing of the fropa, and now have it moving thru the fcst area on Monday. It's still looking mostly dry with reinforcing high pressure spreading back over the area in it's wake and lingering for the remainder of the period. With that said, the period should be dry except for some slight chance PoPs over the higher terrain as the front moves over the area. Temps will remain well-above normal thru the period.