Sugar Mountain

Sugar Mountain, NC

Currently

Temperature 30°F
Feels Like 24.98°F
Humidity 87%
Pressure 1016mb
Wind 13mph from the ENE
Overcast clouds 30°F Overcast clouds
Today Mostly Sunny
High: 44°F Low: 32°F
Friday Sunny
High: 51°F Low: 38°F
Saturday Sunny
High: 59°F Low: 46°F
Sunday Partly Sunny then Slight Chance Rain Showers
High: 64°F Low: 49°F
Monday Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 66°F Low: 52°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... A cold front will push east of the area this morning, while dry high pressure starts to build in from the west. A warming trend is expected Friday through the first part of next week, with temperatures well above normal. A cold front is forecast to reach our region from the northwest in the middle of the week bringing another chance of rain and cooler temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 618 AM EDT Thursday: It's dry across the forecast area as strong upper ridging builds in from the west and heights begin to rise atop high pressure centered over the Ozarks. No major changes were made to the forecast this morning given that things were on track to begin with. Quite a bit of cloud cover remains in place, especially over the I-77 corridor, where low cloud bases are still being reported at a number of ob sites.

Clouds should quickly scour out starting mid-morning, giving way to clear skies this afternoon. Potent N/NW CAA will linger through much of the day, and so gusty winds will develop across mountain ridgetops. It still appears as though we'll fall just shy of Wind Advisory criteria in most if not all mountain locations, with any sites that do hit criteria being at the highest ridgetops, where peaks will protrude into the stronger flow aloft. So, no Advisory will be issued at this point in time. Locations outside the mountains will likely see some moderate gusts as well from late morning onward, as a deep and largely uncapped mixed layer develops and those winds aloft successfully mix down to the surface. With RHs expected to bottom out at borderline or critical values across much of the area, a Fire Danger Statement for our northeast Georgia counties will be issued in coordination with GA land managers. See the Fire Wx discussion section below for additional details.

Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid or upper 30s amid waning but still-present CAA and "so-so" radiative cooling. Winds generally look to be too breezy through the night for much of a frost concern...but sheltered areas in the Upstate and Piedmont may be able to develop some patchy frost leading up to daybreak.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Thursday: A flat upper ridge will begin to build in across the eastern CONUS Friday thru the weekend, resulting in a fairly pronounced warming trend across the forecast area with generally dry conditions. The 850 mb flow will start out NWLY, but back to mostly WLY and continue thru Sunday. The flow may advect enuf moisture for a slgt chc of showers along the TN border Sunday, but otherwise no mentionable PoPs thru the short term. Temps will start out near to slightly above normal Friday, then warm to 10-15 deg above normal by Sunday, with highs likely getting into the lower 80s across much of the Piedmont. The strong insolation may allow for deep mixing, tapping into the westerly flow aloft and resulting in breezy conditions Saturday and Sunday aftns, but expected to remain below advisory criteria.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday: The upper flow will amplify early next week, with upper ridging roughly along the Appalachians and a digging trough entering the Central Plains. This will result in a low pressure system deepening over the center of the CONUS, activating a warm front just north of the forecast area Monday. That front should lift further north Tuesday, keeping well-above normal temps across the area within a moistening warm sector air mass.

The models are in decent agreement on the sfc low tracking E/NE across the Ohio Valley Tuesday and bringing a trailing cold front thru the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The current timing of the front would be during the diurnal minimum of heating, so instability doesn't look very impressive. But the front should have decent synoptic forcing with it and plenty of bulk shear to work with. For now, have just slgt chc of thunderstorms but solid chc to likely PoPs for showers. The front should bring temps back down closer to normal for Wednesday, with even a very brief shot of NW flow snow showers in the highest elevations Wednesday night.

Sugar Ski & Country Club